Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 33.961478 36.710941 39.703562 43.225998 47.289221 51.867370 57.471256
2025-04-13 29.156599 32.664094 36.721238 41.836609 48.228091 56.115976 66.870146
2025-04-20 27.411974 31.516578 36.483527 43.089394 51.900474 63.670284 81.425627
2025-04-27 26.074446 30.587326 36.245995 44.107192 55.193226 71.094385 97.544139
2025-05-04 24.862377 29.637593 35.800199 44.678548 57.816999 77.919009 114.684770
2025-05-11 23.536593 28.397561 34.809558 44.312032 58.927451 82.527619 129.490380
2025-05-18 22.320598 27.195688 33.742681 43.677050 59.470250 86.221052 143.841395
2025-05-25 21.187957 26.021963 32.609710 42.803935 59.471160 88.908341 157.121430
2025-06-01 20.197163 24.977920 31.577511 41.969763 59.397875 91.401483 171.060513
2025-06-08 19.215995 23.891565 30.410414 40.816256 58.622215 92.370718 181.640774
2025-06-15 18.974985 23.826061 30.716065 42.001131 62.076530 102.601519 224.597365
2025-06-22 18.396543 23.245150 30.213750 41.819962 63.006213 107.670201 255.714588
2025-06-29 17.734184 22.534686 29.508252 41.301108 63.349233 111.795466 288.957602
2025-07-06 16.928843 21.584068 28.390231 40.007020 62.048027 111.757940 305.841828
2025-07-13 16.763327 21.561092 28.694377 41.170732 65.798698 125.520096 410.152706
2025-07-20 16.556488 21.462715 28.868513 42.115032 69.256025 139.960469 563.464502
2025-07-27 16.274673 21.235491 28.819204 42.644679 71.905271 153.275179 776.315583
2025-08-03 15.837279 20.751368 28.325216 42.304956 72.535063 160.466943 980.626741
2025-08-10 15.379595 20.218235 27.724123 41.716077 72.502869 165.462944 1211.334517
2025-08-17 14.907124 19.645764 27.032403 40.905700 71.840554 168.023637 1445.874121
2025-08-24 14.467670 19.110474 26.380523 40.130753 71.178032 170.463783 1749.700164
2025-08-31 13.995977 18.511131 25.599192 39.057982 69.663217 169.126542 1942.877862
2025-09-07 13.941179 18.561941 25.912074 40.159907 73.808793 193.375578 5321.764321